Strategy

Macro determines direction. Timing determines return.

Every market regime creates different winners. Interest rates, liquidity and capital flows systematically and visibly shift the attractiveness of asset classes. That is where our strategy begins: identify the regime, allocate capital selectively, and manage risk with discipline.

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Investment Philosophy

Macro shifts capital. Capital shifts markets.

Liquidity, inflation and interest rates define the market regime. They determine which asset classes enjoy structural tailwinds and which come under pressure. Those who misread the market phase allocate incorrectly.

That is why our strategy begins not with individual securities, but with macro.

01

Identify the Regime

Interest rates, liquidity and inflation shift capital flows. Before any position is entered, the global macro regime is classified precisely.

02

Allocate Capital Selectively

Top down. First the regime, then the asset class, then the security. Capital is concentrated where structure and risk premium are compelling.

03

Manage Risk Strictly

Losses are limited early. Winners are allowed to run. Position size follows conviction, not a static weighting logic.

Investment Process

From Macro to Position.

Analysis does not begin with individual securities. It begins with the global environment. Macroeconomic forces define which asset classes have structural tailwinds. Only then come sector selection, security selection, and timing. Each step builds on the previous one. That is how conviction is formed, and conviction determines position size.

01

Business Cycle

PMI data, credit growth, the yield curve, and leading indicators show where the business cycle stands. Depending on the phase, capital flows shift systematically and fundamentally change the attractiveness of individual asset classes.

In the first step, the current phase of the cycle is identified. The key factors are growth momentum, credit impulse, the slope of the yield curve, and leading economic indicators.

This reveals the market environment in which capital is moving and which asset classes, regions, or sectors are receiving structural tailwinds in the current cycle. Those who classify the cycle correctly are positioned earlier than the consensus.

02

Macro Analysis

Based on the cycle, the macroeconomic environment is refined. Interest rate levels, inflation dynamics, currency movements, and global liquidity determine which asset classes and regions receive structural tailwinds.

In the second step, the broader macro picture is developed. The key factors are the direction of monetary policy, inflation dynamics, capital flows between regions, and the development of global liquidity.

This shows which asset classes, currency areas, and sectors should be preferred in the current macro environment. The macro view provides the framework for every further allocation decision.

03

Fundamental Analysis

Macro and cycle define which sectors have tailwinds. Fundamental analysis determines which companies within those sectors are structurally compelling. The key factors are valuation, balance sheet quality, and relative strength.

In the third step, sectors and companies are filtered based on which ones offer the best conditions within the broader macro and cycle framework.

Valuation level, balance sheet quality, market position, and relative strength within the respective sector form the basis for further selection. Only what is convincing in both macro context and fundamentals is considered further.

04

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is not an isolated signal. It confirms the macro and fundamental context and shows when the market is ready. Price structure, trend, and momentum are the decisive filters.

In the fourth step, the broader context is assessed from a technical perspective. Elliott wave structures help determine the current position in the price cycle and identify potential turning points early.

Trend quality, support, resistance, volume, and momentum refine timing and position building. A position is only entered when all five analytical steps point in the same direction.

05

Sentiment Analysis

Extreme positioning and exaggerated sentiment create mispricings. Those who recognize them improve timing and risk control significantly. Sentiment shows when the consensus has gone too far.

In the fifth step, the analysis examines how market participants are already positioned and whether sentiment has become excessively optimistic or pessimistic.

This makes it possible to identify mispricings early and determine entry or exit points with greater precision. Sentiment is the final filter before every position decision.

Portfolio Construction

Structure follows the cycle.

The portfolio is not weighted statically. It is managed actively in line with the market phase. An ETF foundation provides the base. Select individual securities generate added value. The allocation between the two follows conviction.

Mid Caps
Large Caps
ETF Foundation
01

ETF Foundation

A broadly diversified ETF is used for each sector. This creates a clear core positioning with high liquidity and a defined base allocation, even in phases of low conviction.

02

Selective Large Caps

Large-cap companies are added when they stand out within their sector through quality, market position and relative strength, and when the macro picture supports the position.

03

Targeted Mid Caps

Mid caps are added when the risk-reward profile is asymmetrically attractive. Higher conviction, higher allocation.

Risk Framework

Five rules for disciplined risk management.

Risk management does not begin only after the analysis, but already at the structuring stage of each individual position. Our framework combines position sizing, loss limitation, trend following, portfolio protection and adaptation to market phases into a disciplined overall process.

Capital Preservation

The protection of invested capital takes precedence over the maximisation of short-term returns and forms the basis of every allocation decision.

Discipline

Clear rules for position sizing, loss limitation and portfolio construction create consistency even during volatile market phases.

Market Cycles

Risk management adapts dynamically to macroeconomic developments, liquidity and changes in risk premia.

01

Position Sizing

Risk arises from the size of the allocation, not from the idea alone. Capital is weighted deliberately, depending on liquidity, volatility and market structure.

Disciplined position sizing allows the relationship between opportunity and risk to be managed deliberately. This creates a portfolio that remains stable even when individual assumptions prove incorrect.

02

Loss Limitation

Clear stop logic protects capital when a market assumption is invalidated. Losses are limited early before they can have a structural effect on the portfolio.

The objective is not to predict every market move correctly, but to protect capital consistently and remain able to act in changing market phases.

03

Trend Capture

Winners are allowed to run so that effective market moves can unfold fully. Returns are often driven by a limited number of strong trends.

Instead of realising gains too early, the aim is to follow structural moves with discipline over longer periods of time.

04

Portfolio Protection

The overall risk of all positions is continuously monitored as one unit. Correlations between positions play a central role in this.

Several individual positions must not together create excessive risk that threatens the stability of the overall portfolio.

05

Market Phases

Risk management adapts to changing macroeconomic cycles. Capital is deployed where opportunities and risk premia are attractive.

In uncertain market phases, risk is reduced, while in stable trends higher allocations and more targeted positioning become possible.

Next Steps

From strategy to implementation.

Those who have understood the approach can now go deeper, either into the investment solution itself or into the current macro assessment.