Macro Outlook
The Macro Outlook places the current market environment in context along key macroeconomic forces. Growth, inflation, liquidity and risk premia shape market structure and form the foundation for strategic asset allocation.
Current Market Phase
The current market phase is assessed along four key macro forces. Growth, inflation, liquidity and risk premia determine how capital is allocated across asset classes, regions and sectors.
Growth dynamics remain a central driver of risk appetite, capital flows and the relative strength of individual sectors.
A slowdown, acceleration or stabilisation of growth directly influences which markets receive tailwinds and where structural opportunities or vulnerabilities begin to emerge.
Inflation determines how markets evaluate interest rates, real assets and price formation across different asset classes.
Not only the level matters, but also the direction. Falling, stable or rising price pressure changes the attractiveness of equities, bonds, commodities and currencies.
Liquidity shapes market behaviour, the level of risk appetite and the ability of trends to develop sustainably.
Changes in central bank policy, credit conditions and global financing dynamics often affect markets earlier than traditional economic data and therefore provide important early signals.
Risk premiums show how markets reflect uncertainty, volatility and future return expectations in prices.
When valuations and risk spreads change, the balance between opportunity and risk often shifts significantly between defensive and cyclical market segments.
Implications for Asset Allocation
Macroeconomic changes do not affect all markets equally. Depending on the phase of the cycle, risk appetite, valuation levels, capital flows and the relative attractiveness of individual asset classes change.
Equities respond sensitively to growth expectations, financing costs and the relative attractiveness of risk premia.
During phases of stable liquidity and robust economic activity, cyclical segments often benefit. When cost pressure rises or growth weakens, the focus often shifts instead toward quality, margin strength and more defensive business models.
Bonds are shaped primarily by interest rate developments, inflation expectations and real yields.
Declining inflation dynamics and falling interest rates can make duration more attractive. If uncertainty about the price level and monetary policy rises, traditional fixed income segments often come under pressure.
Commodities become particularly relevant when real assets gain relative attractiveness versus financial assets.
Inflation pressure, supply bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions or structural shifts in global capital flows can lead to above-average strength in energy, metals or agricultural segments.
Currencies reflect interest rate differentials, capital flows and confidence in the stability of growth and monetary policy.
Changes in relative monetary policy or liquidity provision often affect exchange rates directly. This makes currencies an important signal for global risk appetite and relative market strength between regions.
Current Market View
Our current market view is based on the assessment of long-term macroeconomic shifts. Global changes in debt, inflation, geopolitical order and capital flows are changing which asset classes can develop relative strength in the current environment and where active capital allocation becomes particularly relevant.
We do not see the current market phase as a short-term episode, but as part of a broader structural transition. Rising debt, geopolitical shifts and recurring inflation pressure suggest that capital flows may increasingly move toward real assets and scarce real value segments.
Commodities and precious metals are gaining importance as strategic building blocks.
Capital flows increasingly respond to real scarcity rather than only to liquidity expansion.
The current market phase requires selective allocation rather than broad passive risk-taking.
Commodities are gaining strategic importance in the current environment because they may benefit from inflation pressure, supply constraints and structural capital reallocation.
Energy, industrial metals and selected commodity segments can gain relative strength particularly when real assets become more attractive than purely financial investments.
Gold and other real assets gain relevance when monetary uncertainty rises and real yields come under pressure.
In an environment of structural shifts, real assets serve not only as diversification, but also as an expression of changing capital preferences within the global system.
Our conclusion is not a broad risk-on stance, but a targeted and disciplined positioning along the strongest structural trends.
Not every asset class benefits equally. Especially in phases of structural change, active capital allocation becomes decisive in order to capture opportunities selectively and limit risks in a controlled way.
Outlook
For the coming quarters, the key question remains how growth, inflation dynamics, liquidity and risk premia evolve relative to one another. Our focus is on identifying early whether the structural transition continues to deepen or whether markets move into a new phase of relative stabilisation.
We expect capital markets in the next phase to differentiate more strongly between relative strength and structural weakness. This supports a selective allocation across asset classes, regions and real assets.
Macroeconomic divergence remains a central driver of relative performance.
Real assets and scarce segments remain strategically relevant.
Active capital allocation remains essential because broad market moves are becoming more uneven.
The key question is whether global economic momentum continues to weaken or whether new relative strength emerges in individual regions.
For allocation, not only absolute growth matters, but above all where expectations are underestimated or overestimated and how these differences are reflected in prices.
The further path of inflation and the interest rate structure remains the most important driver for valuations, duration and risk appetite.
Even small changes in the direction of inflation or in interest rate expectations can trigger larger reallocations between equities, bonds, commodities and currencies.
We monitor whether capital continues to shift into real assets, scarce segments and selectively strong markets.
Especially during phases of structural transition, capital flows often provide earlier signals than traditional economic data and help identify new leadership segments in time.
Next Step
The Macro Outlook provides the framework for assessing the current market environment. The next step is either to deepen the strategic implications or to examine the specific investment solution and its implementation in greater detail.
Learn how we analyse market cycles, structure capital and implement risk management as a central element of allocation.
Go to Strategy 02Explore the product structure, access, implementation logic and the operational framework of the investment solution in detail.
Go to Investment Solution
